Tomorrow afternoon Michigan will play in the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three years following an eleven year drought that seemed to stretch for an eternity. John Beilein and company have come into post-season play as one of the “hot” teams by going on an absolute tear to end the year after starting off 1-6 in the Big Ten. During Michigan’s stretch run, all four of their losses came in the final minutes against tournament teams, including two at the hands of the number one overall seed in Ohio State.
Tennessee, on the other hand, comes into the tournament in an absolute free-fall. They have struggled to put together any semblance of quality basketball in the last month and Coach Bruce Pearl found his job security openly questioned by his athletic director just days before what could be his final game rocking his orange blazer.
What will each Michigan player need to do in order for Michigan to get the win tomorrow?
· Darius Morris – Morris will face a ton of pressure from a very long, athletic, and active Tennessee defense. He will see a lot of man to man pressure with occasional traps coming in the half-court set. If Morris is able to see the floor he should have a big game distributing the ball tomorrow. If he is able to split the occasional double-team he has a very good chance to get to the hoop and score. If Darius can limit his turnovers and distribute the ball away from the Tennessee pressure Michigan will have an excellent chance to win.
· Hardaway Jr. – Timmy has been on an absolute roll the second half of the season. He is a true difference-maker who can really light the scoreboard up in a very short period of time. For Michigan to advance to the round of 32 Hardaway Jr. must find a way to put up at least 15 points tomorrow. When Hardaway has his shot from distance going, it opens so many different things up for the Michigan offense.
· Novak – Novak has been the glue guy all year for the Michigan basketball team. Novak doesn’t need to be spectacular on the offensive end as long as he can pull down the big boards and potentially slow down a very talented player in Tennessee’s 6’8” freshman forward Tobias Harris. If Novak is able to limit Harris’s points then that will go a long way towards allowing Michigan to come home with a victory.
· Douglass – Stu, similar to Darius, is going to need to take care of the ball tomorrow. Stu uncharacteristically struggled down the stretch handling the ball and had a bunch of inexplicable turnovers against Ohio State. Stu is going to get a lot of open looks from beyond the arc tomorrow and he is going to have to knock them down in order to prevent the perimeter defense from focusing on Morris and Hardaway. It would be a great time for Stu to have one of his “big-game” nights from the three point line.
· Morgan – Jordan simply needs to stay out of foul trouble in this game. He has played so well recently running the pick and roll with both Morris and Hardaway Jr. that I see no reason why he wont’ have success if he is in the game. Morgan will not be tasked with being a rebounding machine tomorrow as he will simply be charged with keeping his man off the glass and allowing the guards to clean up the boards. Jordan must avoid a couple of early cheap fouls at all cost.
· Smotrycz – Evan has come up with some big time shots down the stretch despite seeing his minutes decline in the second half of the season. Even more important, Evan has shown the ability to play the 5 anytime that Jordan gets in foul trouble or needs a rest. Evan will be a tough matchup for the Tennessee big men with his ability to stretch the floor and shoot the rock from outside. If Evan could chip in a timely three point buck or two and play solid defense in the post, it will go a long way towards contributing to a Wolverine win.
Michigan will have to figure out how to handle both Tobias Harris and Scotty Hopson. Both of these guys are pure scorers and Michigan will need to limit their points in order to have a chance to win. I will definitely be interested to see if John Beilein mixes in any 1-3-1 or matchup zone to combat the athleticism that the Vols bring to the table.
All in all, I honestly think this is a good matchup for Michigan. Michigan has proven to be a very disciplined team who largely does an excellent job of taking care of the ball. As long as they don’t get caught up trying to play at Tennessee’s pace then I think they get the win and move on to a big time second round matchup with Duke.
Prediction: Michigan 68 – Tennessee 61
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