What We Learned: Basketball 2010-2011

The Wolverines refused to quit today while battling back from a 15-point deficit against one of the top teams in the country.  This team showed heart, grit, and talent that have been sorely lacking in the Michigan basketball program for a long, long time.  Even though the run is done, everyone should be looking forward to what could be a huge step forward for this program in 2011-2012.  Before we completely shut the door on 2010-2011, I wanted to take some time to cover what we learned about our young Wolverines over the course of this season.  Here are 5 quick things we learned about the Michigan basketball team this year:

1.     Darius Morris has turned into a tremendous point guard.

- Morris, after having little impact as a highly touted freshman last year, showed tremendous improvement over the course of this season.  He morphed from a timid freshman into a sophomore who had complete control over his team.  Morris actually led Michigan in scoring (15 ppg) and even led the entire Big Ten with 6.7 assists per game.  Morris has developed an extremely versatile game that allows him to be both a distributor and scorer depending on what the moment calls for.  He has excellent body control that allows him to get shots over shorter guards once he gets in the lane.  The only thing standing between Morris and being a first round NBA draft selection might be his ability to develop a three point shot (25% this season).  If Morris can dedicate his game this summer to developing a perimeter jump shot, Michigan’s offense could morph into one of the better units in the league next year.

2.     Tim Hardaway Jr. is a future star.

- The Miami native had a tough time getting his shots to fall early in the season but over the last two months we have watched Hardaway Jr. develop into an efficient scorer who has that unique ability to take over a game at any time.  Today, for example, Tim struggled over the course of the entire game but then put together a huge 7-point stretch in about two minutes that totally changed the complexity of the game.  Hardaway Jr. is a tremendous shooter who has very solid size and length for the small forward position.  He has gotten better about getting to the hoop as the year has gone on while making sure that he is getting quality looks for both himself and his teammates.  Hardaway needs to develop better handles to truly take his game to the next level.  If his dad could teach him the old “Texas Two-Step” this summer along with a few more moves off the dribble, we could be looking at a potential front-runner for Big Ten player of the year next year.

3.     The post position is in much better shape than people think.

- Most people’s biggest fear heading into this season was the complete lack of experience that Michigan had at both the power forward and center spots.  The depth still isn’t tremendous but Michigan has definitely found plenty of talent to hold down the fort at these spots for the next few seasons.  Jordan Morgan, Evan Smotrycz, and John Horford form a solid core that will all return next season.

Morgan is a great fit in John Beilein’s motion offense and has firmly grasped the pick and roll system.  Morgan will continue to develop his post moves this off-season in order to become a more proficient scorer. 

As we saw today, Evan Smotrycz has the ability to become a lethal scorer at the power forward spot in this system.  There is no doubt that Evan can shoot the rock, but if he continues to develop his post game and his dribble drive game, similar to what he was able to do against Duke today, then he will become a huge matchup problem for opponents in the years to come. 

Lastly, and perhaps the key to next season, is the rapidly developing John Horford.  Horford has already put on 30 pounds since coming to Michigan and will probably attempt to add another 15-20 before the start of the upcoming season.  Horford’s athleticism and shot-blocking ability would be a big boost to the Wolverines defensive and rebounding efforts. 

4.     Michigan no longer lives and dies by the three.

In John Beilein’s first few seasons it seemed that Michigan had no shot to win a game if they did not hit 8-10 shots from beyond the arc.  Today was a perfect example of a game where Michigan did not have tremendous success beyond the arc but they were still able to battle to the end with one of the top teams in the country.  All the credit in the world has to go to Beilein and his coaching staff for developing a hybrid type offense that takes advantage of the unique abilities that are present on this team.  The system has given players like Morris and Morgan the ability to run the pick and roll while still allowing shooters like Novak and Douglass to spot up and hit that timely three from the wing.  The offense is so tough to defend because of the high volume of picks and back cuts that constantly keep defenders heads’ on a swivel.  Beilein will continue to add new wrinkles and tricks that will make this a difficult team to guard.  Everyone thought that Duke had the coaching advantage going into this game but I think anyone that watched the game today would be hard-pressed to argue that John Beilein outcoached Coach K today after watching Beilein’s patented 1-3-1 give K’s squad all sorts of fits down the stretch.

5.     Basketball is back at the University of Michigan.

- Much has been made about the dark days that Michigan basketball has endured since the Fab 5 sanctions decimated the program.  It finally seems that those dark clouds are parting and Michigan basketball might be returning to national relevance.  John Beilein and every player on the roster will return in 2011-2012 and judging by national media reactions following the game this team is a sure-fire lock to be a Top-25 team to open the season.  With what other teams in the conference are losing, I would fully expect Michigan to be considered one of the preseason favorites to win the conference title next year.   

To go along with a rapidly improving on the floor product, the facilities at Michigan will finally be improved to a level that is appropriate for a Division 1 basketball power.  The new player development center that will be finished this fall will be a major recruiting tool, as it should provide one of the best practice spaces in the Big Ten.  Crisler Arena will also be getting a bit of a face-lift this off-season as Phase I of a 50 million dollar renovation project gets underway.

The future is extremely bright and each and every single one of us should be looking forward to watching this program continue to ascend towards mountain-top under the watchful eye of an excellent coach in John Beilein.

Tournament Preview: Duke

Before this season began, if someone had told you that our basketball team would sweep Michigan State, last longer in the tournament than Michigan State, and finish in fourth place in the Big Ten, I think that you would have immediately suggested to that person that they might want to check in to a padded suite at the nearest mental institution.  In what was supposed to be a rebuilding year, John Beilein and the young Wolverines have blown any and all expectations out of the water.  It has been a tremendous run these past two months to get from that first win in East Lansing to the “third-round” NCAA Tournament matchup they have with the Duke Blue Devils tomorrow.  One thing is for sure, win or lose tomorrow, Beilein and Michigan have proven unequivocally that they will be one of the top teams in the Big Ten in 2011 and that this is clearly a program on the rise.

Speaking of Duke, how perfect is it that after the events of the past week that these two teams will meet in a tournament game?  A quick recap for those who missed the last weeks documentary:  Jalen Rose and the Fab 5 members that took part in the documentary that aired last Sunday night were not shy in expressing the disdain that they held for Duke when they were college kids.  Rose event went so far as to argue that Duke would not recruit him because Coach K would only take “Uncle Tom’s” such as Grant Hill who came from 2-parent black households and not kids like Jalen who came from rough and tumble backgrounds.  This prompted Hill to write a scathing editorial in the New York Times over feelings that were clearly meant to depict Jalen’s thought process 20 years ago. 

Lets just say the last week has definitely raised some awareness levels when it comes to the Michigan and Duke rivalry of the early 90’s.  I do not really think that this adds anything to the game on the court tomorrow, but it has surely added a level of intrigue that the national media has snatched onto and tried to turn into a major story.

Duke was the 4^th ranked number one seed on selection Sunday, however, with the return of freshman sensation Kyrie Irving, they very well might be the last team in this tournament by the time everything is said and done and One Shining Moment is played in early April.  Irving gives Duke the hands down best 6^th man in the country with his ability to shoot the ball from deep and his tremendous speed and athleticism that allows him to get to the rim at will.

All gushing over Irving aside, Duke also boasts a pair of senior stars who have carried the Blue Devils through the 2010-11 season.  Nolan Smith, who was the ACC player of this year, averaged just under 21 points per game while his fellow senior Kyle Singler has averaged 17 points per game.  The experience and talent that these two bring to the table makes Duke an extremely tough out in this tournament as each of these guys are proven winners who can carry their team to a victory. 

Duke also has a quality set of role players who do an excellent job of complementing the strengths of their stars.  The Plumlee brothers both have excellent size and will wreak havoc on the boards tomorrow while Ryan Kelly, an underrated sophomore forward, has started to provide some timely three point shooting and rebounding for the Blue Devils.  Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins provide more talent at the guard possession and both are lethal shooters who have the ability to torch an opponent if they find their stroke early in a game.

 A lot of people are not giving Michigan much of a chance to win the game tomorrow, but these people quickly forget that Michigan has gone toe-to-toe with both Kansas (OT loss) and Ohio State (3 single digit losses).  Michigan has shown the ability to slow the game down against top teams and turn games into low possession contests that favor their style of play and can keep them hanging around close enough to have an opportunity to win the game at the end.  In fact, on a per possession basis, Michigan plays at the second lowest rate in the tournament (trailing only Wisconsin). 

One of the many fans primary concerns going into tomorrow’s game is whether or not Michigan will be able to contend with the size that Duke brings to the table.  Yes, Duke has the potential to start a huge front line if they have Plumlee, Kelly, and Singler all in the game at the same time.  However, I do not have many concerns with this because John Beilein has shown that he has a tremendous ability to create mismatches on the offensive end that can force teams to go away from larger lineups.  When Michigan played Kansas (one of the tallest teams in the nation) earlier in the year, Beilein made sure to use his small lineup to his advantage by getting guys like Novak easy looks from three.  It will be very interesting to see if Novak can shoot the ball well again tomorrow and force Duke into a smaller lineup.

The bigger concern that I have going into tomorrow’s game is how Michigan will be able to slow down the Irving and Smith backcourt combination.  These are undoubtedly the best two guards that Michigan has seen all year and Darius Morris is really going to have to step up on the defensive end if Michigan is going to have a shot to win this game.  It will be interesting to see if Michigan tries to go zone early in an attempt to pack the lane and force the Blue Devils to start the game shooting from the outside.

On the offensive side of things I think Michigan will have an extremely favorable matchup for either Darius Morris or Tim Hardaway Jr.  Nolan Smith is a solid defender but he will not be able to defend both of these guys and I would love for Duke to try and start Singler off on Hardaway Jr.  I think we will ultimately see a healthy dose of Irving guarding Morris and Nolan Smith taking his turns at trying to slow down and stop Timmy.

With the way that Michigan has played the past two months, there is no doubt in my mind that they will be in this ball game.  It is going to take a tremendous effort from everyone on the team and someone will have to step up and have the game of his life in order to carry Michigan forward into the Sweet 16. 

As much as I want to believe that this magical run can keeping going, Duke is just so talented, deep, and experienced that I think they take care of business against Michigan tomorrow on their way to another final four.  No matter what happens tomorrow, Michigan is on the rise, and for that, we should all be looking with a bright eye towards the future.

Tournament Preview: Tennessee

Tomorrow afternoon Michigan will play in the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three years following an eleven year drought that seemed to stretch for an eternity.  John Beilein and company have come into post-season play as one of the  “hot” teams by going on an absolute tear to end the year after starting off 1-6 in the Big Ten.  During Michigan’s stretch run, all four of their losses came in the final minutes against tournament teams, including two at the hands of the number one overall seed in Ohio State.

Tennessee, on the other hand, comes into the tournament in an absolute free-fall.  They have struggled to put together any semblance of quality basketball in the last month and Coach Bruce Pearl found his job security openly questioned by his athletic director just days before what could be his final game rocking his orange blazer.

What will each Michigan player need to do in order for Michigan to get the win tomorrow?

·      Darius Morris – Morris will face a ton of pressure from a very long, athletic, and active Tennessee defense.  He will see a lot of man to man pressure with occasional traps coming in the half-court set.  If Morris is able to see the floor he should have a big game distributing the ball tomorrow.  If he is able to split the occasional double-team he has a very good chance to get to the hoop and score.  If Darius can limit his turnovers and distribute the ball away from the Tennessee pressure Michigan will have an excellent chance to win.

·      Hardaway Jr. – Timmy has been on an absolute roll the second half of the season.  He is a true difference-maker who can really light the scoreboard up in a very short period of time.  For Michigan to advance to the round of 32 Hardaway Jr. must find a way to put up at least 15 points tomorrow.  When Hardaway has his shot from distance going, it opens so many different things up for the Michigan offense. 

·      Novak – Novak has been the glue guy all year for the Michigan basketball team.  Novak doesn’t need to be spectacular on the offensive end as long as he can pull down the big boards and potentially slow down a very talented player in Tennessee’s 6’8” freshman forward Tobias Harris.  If Novak is able to limit Harris’s points then that will go a long way towards allowing Michigan to come home with a victory.

·      Douglass – Stu, similar to Darius, is going to need to take care of the ball tomorrow.  Stu uncharacteristically struggled down the stretch handling the ball and had a bunch of inexplicable turnovers against Ohio State.  Stu is going to get a lot of open looks from beyond the arc tomorrow and he is going to have to knock them down in order to prevent the perimeter defense from focusing on Morris and Hardaway.  It would be a great time for Stu to have one of his “big-game” nights from the three point line.

·      Morgan – Jordan simply needs to stay out of foul trouble in this game.  He has played so well recently running the pick and roll with both Morris and Hardaway Jr. that I see no reason why he wont’ have success if he is in the game.  Morgan will not be tasked with being a rebounding machine tomorrow as he will simply be charged with keeping his man off the glass and allowing the guards to clean up the boards.  Jordan must avoid a couple of early cheap fouls at all cost.

·      Smotrycz – Evan has come up with some big time shots down the stretch despite seeing his minutes decline in the second half of the season.  Even more important, Evan has shown the ability to play the 5 anytime that Jordan gets in foul trouble or needs a rest.  Evan will be a tough matchup for the Tennessee big men with his ability to stretch the floor and shoot the rock from outside.  If Evan could chip in a timely three point buck or two and play solid defense in the post, it will go a long way towards contributing to a Wolverine win.

Michigan will have to figure out how to handle both Tobias Harris and Scotty Hopson.  Both of these guys are pure scorers and Michigan will need to limit their points in order to have a chance to win.  I will definitely be interested to see if John Beilein mixes in any 1-3-1 or matchup zone to combat the athleticism that the Vols bring to the table.

All in all, I honestly think this is a good matchup for Michigan.  Michigan has proven to be a very disciplined team who largely does an excellent job of taking care of the ball.  As long as they don’t get caught up trying to play at Tennessee’s pace then I think they get the win and move on to a big time second round matchup with Duke.

Prediction: Michigan 68 – Tennessee 61

Big Opportunity for Beilein

This weekend’s game between Michigan and Michigan State is easily the biggest game this basketball rivalry has seen in the last decade.  Michigan is finally becoming relevant again at the exact same time that Michigan State and Tom Izzo find themselves fighting for their tournament life.  Michigan is on the cusp of breaking into the NCAA tournament with one of the youngest teams in recent Division1 memory.  It’s been a remarkable turnaround for the maize and blue after they sputtered to a 1-6 record in their first seven Big Ten games.

Clearly, the man with the most to gain on Saturday is John Beilein.  Beilein has had plenty of outspoken critics against his coaching philosophy, style and system over the past four years and I will be the first to admit that I have been one of the most outwardly vocal pessimists you could find when it came to Beilein and his ability to win the Big Ten.  In his first year, Beilein struggled with a young team before taking the Wolverines on a magical run to the tournament in year two.  Year three started with high expectations and ended with a whimper.  In year four, the first year with only players Beilein has recruited on the roster, Michigan was young again and even the most optimistic of us were simply hoping for an NIT bid and improvement heading into 2011. 

Beilein, along with his new staff of assistants, has gone above and beyond with the job he has done with this team in 2011.  He has done an excellent job of putting this young yet talented cast in the best positions possible in order to win ball games.  After the crushing home loss to Wisconsin, Michigan easily could have folded, but tons of credit must be given to Beilein and his staff for keeping the team on board and getting them ready to go win at Minnesota. 

Over the course of the year I have seen an evolution of the Michigan basketball team that finally indicates to me that Beilein understands what it takes to win in the Big Ten.  My biggest concern has always been that Beilein was not going to be able to bring in the talent level on a consistent basis that is needed to win in Ann Arbor.  However, over the course of the season, it is clear that John Beilein went out and got himself a star when he pulled Darius Morris off of the west coast and brought him to Ann Arbor. Also, Beilein clearly uncovered one of the most underrated recruits in the country when he got Tim Hardaway Jr. to sign on the dotted line to play his college ball in Ann Arbor.  Jordan Morgan, another overlooked recruit, has blossomed into a more than capable big man who will be a staple on the block for the years to come.  With Trey Burke and Carlton Brundidge in the fold for 2011 and Glen Robinson Jr. already committed for 2012, I think it’s safe to say that Beilein will be able to recruit at a high enough level to be successful on the Big Ten. 

Another concern with Beilein that I’ve had is the over-reliance on the 3-point shot that seemed to turn every game into a shoot well and live or shoot poor and die type scenario.  This team still shoots a ton of three’s but with both Hardaway and Morris having the ability to take the ball to the rack and Morgan’s increasingly improving ability to finish in the paint Michigan is no longer the one-trick pony that I feared they would be.  Beilein finally understands that players who can create their own shot, like Morris and Hardaway, are a necessity to win games in the Big Ten.

All positive gushing aside, Beilein faces a huge hurdle on Saturday.  No sane Michigan fan will question the fact that the Michigan State basketball program is one of the very best in college basketball and the type of program that we ultimately aspire to be.  Tom Izzo has done a phenomenal job of consistently recruiting the best talent in the Midwest and getting his teams to play above and beyond their potential around tournament time year in and year out.  Beilein finally beat Izzo in East Lansing for the first time earlier this season and it seems so right that the final hurdle between Beilein and a potential restoration of Michigan basketball just might be a Saturday showdown with Izzo and the Spartans. 

Michigan basketball and John Beilein have created a stir amongst their fans with a great stretch of play from a talented young nucleus.   They have a tremendous opportunity to bring fan support, for both this year and next, back to levels that haven’t been seen since the Fab Five if they are able to knock off Izzo this weekend and play themselves into the tournament.  A loss would leave fans skeptical at another sub-500 Big Ten finish with only the die hards taking a cautiously optimistic approach for 2012.  A win, and it might not be all that crazy to say that Michigan basketball is truly and unequivocally back on the map.  I think it’s safe to say that John Beilein has a ton on the line this weekend.

Spring Questions: Michigan Defense

We started off our list of pre-spring questions for the Legends Division with three questions that the Michigan offense will attempt to answer over the course of the spring.  For all of the promise that the offense displayed in 2010, the defense displayed equal amounts of doom and gloom over the course of the season.  Last year’s defense was the worst defense that has ever taken the field at Michigan and I don’t think anyone who watched a Michigan game this past season needs me to bother mentioning the statistics to back it up.  The defense couldn’t even stop the vaunted UMass Minutemen from rolling up big numbers early in the non-conference slate.

Gone is the 3-3-5 and in comes Greg Mattison and the 4-3 defense that Michigan fans have been pining for since Rich Rodriguez changed the defense mid-season in 2008.

1.     What impact will Greg Mattison have in year one?

The biggest off-season move that Brady Hoke has made so far was the hiring of nationally recognized and respected defensive coordinator Greg Mattison.  Mattison has been the defensive coordinator at Michigan before.  He served on the defensive staff at Michigan from 1992-1996 and was the defensive coordinator in both the 1995 and 1996 seasons.  He spent time at Notre Dame between 1997 and 2004, including a four-year stint as the defensive coordinator under Bob Davie.  From 2005-2007 he served as the co-defensive coordinator at Florida under Charlie Strong.  His past three seasons have been spent working with the very talented Baltimore Ravens.

Michigan could not have found a better man to ressurect a defense that has fallen so far off the path that it has turned into the laughingstock of college football.  Mattison’s resume is a who’s who of college football’s elite and when Urban Meyer talks about Greg Mattison being one of the best coaches he’s ever had the privilege of coaching with we should all sit up and take notice.  Mattison is a great coordinator, but he is also a tremendous recruiter.  Mattison was largely responsible for a majority of the talent that helped Michigan win a national championship in 1997 and he was even the chief recruiter in bringing Tim Tebow to Florida. 

Mattison will bring decades of NFL and collegiate experience with him to Ann Arbor but no one should expect him to be a miracle worker in his first season on the job.  He has some talent to work with but a majority of it is still raw and undeveloped at this point in time.  I do think the Michigan defense will take a significant step forward and hopefully come back towards the statistical levels of an average Big Ten defense by season’s end.  Mattison will continue to have a huge impact on the recruiting trail for 2012.  With Mattison bringing in, and coaching up, great talent it is no stretch of the imagination to think that the Michigan defense’s we all love and remember could be back sooner than we think.

2.     Who will man the outside linebacker spots?

The only returning starter at the linebacker position is redshirt junior Kenny Demens.  Demens will bring a nice skill set back to the middle linebacker position and will give Mattison a solid core member for his linebacking group.  The outside linebacker spots are completely up in the air following the graduation of Jonas Mouton and the elimination of the hybrid positions that were staples of the 3-3-5.

Michigan will need to find a strongside linebacker in addition to a starter for the weakside linebacker position.  The strongside linebacker must be big enough to take on the tight end at the point of attack in the running game but also be fast enough to be solid in pass coverage.  The weakside linebacker will typically be “covered up” and will have the range and freedom to make tons of plays in the 4-3 scheme that Mattison employs.

Some candidates for the linebacker positions include:

J.B. Fitzgerald – Fitzgerald, like Demens, will be a redshirt junior who has four years of college “experience”.  Fitzgerald has the size and speed that could make him an impact player at the strongside position if he is able to get a solid mental grasp on the system.

Cam Gordon – Gordon will not be a safety in the 4-3 and I actually think that he is also more suited to play the strongside linebacker spot than the weakside spot.  Gordon still has the frame to put on another 15 pounds and he is fast enough that he could be a factor against the run on the edge but also be able to adequately cover the tight end in the seams and flats.  Look for Gordon to push hard for a starting job.

Mike Jones – Few people remember, but Jones was a starter in Michigan’s first two games of 2010.  Jones actually has a skill set that is perfectly suited for the weakside linebacker spot.  Jones has tremendous speed for a linebacker but he is not quite big enough to constantly be taking on offensive lineman at the second level.  Jones will be covered by the 3-technique defensive tackle and will be given ample opportunity to find the ball and rush the passer from the weak side of the defense.

Jake Ryan – Ryan is a redshirt freshman who was rumored to be coming on strong towards the end of 2010.  Ryan is more of a middle linebacker build but with Demens in front of him he might have the ability to slide out to the strong side if need be.

Josh Furman – Furman is a tweener right now and the staff is not sure whether he will be a safety or a linebacker.  At linebacker, he would have to play at the weakside spot.  Furman’s 4.4 speed would make him a terror off the edge as a blitzing linebacker.  It will be interesting to see how much Furman can progress in the offseason.

There are plenty of other options including guys like Carvin Johnson, Thomas Gordon, and Isaiah Bell who don’t’ have well-defined positions at this point and could make a move this spring and fall.

My early leaders to be your starters on the outside are Mike Jones and Cam Gordon.

3.     Who will step up in the secondary?

The secondary is a huge question mark heading into 2011.  However, it’s a question mark in the sense of who will play where rather than the question of talent issue that killed Michigan in 2010. 

The first issue within the secondary revolves around the return of Troy Woolfolk.  Will Woolfolk be able to be healthy and effective this fall?  If Woolfolk’s healthy does he play corner or make a return to free safety?  These are two key questions that could go a long way towards determining how solid Michigan’s pass defense will be this season.

Between J.T. Floyd, Courtney Avery, and Cullen Christian it seems like Michigan will have plenty of options to plug in at corner.  However, it remains to be seen exactly who in this group will step up and seize the starting jobs.  Floyd has the size, but lacks the speed and Avery has the speed and the instincts but lacks the size that Hoke and his staff would like in corners on defense.  Christian presents the best package of physical skills and will have every opportunity to earn himself a position somewhere in the secondary.

A host of true freshmen will also get ample opportunity to break in at cornerback if they prove themselves worthy.  Blake Countess and Delonte Hollowell more than likely have the best shot at potentially seeing early playing time at corner but I think this might be the first year in a long time that Michigan will be able to do the smart thing and apply redshirts to all of the incoming defensive backs.

The safety positions are truly up for grabs.  Free safety is Woolfolk’s spot to lose if he is healthy, but if he is placed at corner or can’t return to full health then Michigan will not have a ton of options at the free safety position.  Ray Vinopal is simply not big and strong enough yet to be an impact player at the safety position.  Free safety is not a spot where Michigan has a ton of natural fits and spring ball will offer plenty of guys the opportunity to step up and enter their name in the mix for the free safety job.  Tamani Carter, an incoming freshman, could have a shot to avoid a redshirt and earn early playing time at the free safety spot.

The strong safety battle, in my opinion, will be a dogfight between Carvin Johnson and Marvin Robinson.  Robinson was an extremely highly touted recruited who could provide a physical presence at the strong safety spot.  Johnson was a pleasant surprise playing the hybrid linebacker/safety spot in the 3-3-5 quite well as a true freshman.  I think Michigan will be able to feel good about starting either of these guys in the first game of the season as I expect both of them to rapidly improve heading into their sophomore seasons.