Instant Reactions

We quite possibly may have just witnessed the beginning of the end of Rich Rodriguez's tenure at Michigan.  This team came out absolutely flat and showed zero improvement despite having two full weeks to prepare for the mediocre Penn State team that they took the field against tonight.

I do not want to here anyone talk about how great it was to see the team "fight" back after going down 31-10. "Fighting back" is noble if you are a band of happy-go-lucky losers, but I'm sorry if I have certain expectations for football at the University of Michigan that don't include routinely coming from 21 points down in the second half.

Here are five of my initial post-game reactions:

1. Defensive Personnel Moves - Ray Vinopal started at the deep safety spot and Cam Gordon started at the spur spot.  Vinopal was promptly burned on a deep touchdown (and missed multiple tackles) and Cam Gordon continued to be horrible despite having less responbility at his new position. Overall, good thought in principle but the fact that they stuck with these changes in the second half was absolutely baffling.

2. Vincent Smith - Smith could be a great third down back in this system but he simply should not be the primary feature back in this offense.  Multiple times tonight Smith had huge holes that a better back would have exploited for huge gains and it is absolutely killing Michigan right now that they can't take advantage of these opportunities.  Also, if Vincent Smith ever lines up as the I-back in third and short again I think we should just put the punt team on the field instead as he has never had success in this situation.

3. Denard Robinson - A healthy Denard may still just be the most electric player in college football.  He is truly becoming comfortable with the read-option and is gaining an even better understanding of the offense.  His third rushing touchdown tonight was a perfect rendition of the read-option where both the defensive and and strong safety bit hard on the run-action to the tailback which allowed Denard to walk in the end zone.

4. Wide Receivers - The receiving corps did Denard no favors tonight.  The receivers had multiple opportunities to make important grabs during the course of this game but they simply failed to make any catch that was nominally difficult.  Who doesn't miss the days of quality game-breaking Michigan wide receivers?

5. Rich Rodriguez - Hey Rich, love that you finally got involved in the fourth quarter with the defense, but you were two and a half years too late.  It is true that you have had a lot working against you since you came here but at the end of the day you've not delivered anything on the field to change the negative perception against you and you have no  one to blame for that other than yourself.  Having a team coming off a bye-week perform this bad against a team decimated by injuries who also was starting a backup walk-on quarterback is inexcusable.  Rich, I hate to say it, but, barring a late season miracle run, you sir have run out of time.

A more detailed recap is in order but for now leave your comments on your thoughts from tonight's debacle in Happy Valley.

P.S. How is Greg Robinson employed? The fullback screen along with the curl/out third-down combo were run at least 5 times a piece and our defense never made a single adjustment on either of these plays. Joke.

Penn State Preview

After a much-needed bye week, the Michigan football team returns to action Saturday night in primetime on the road against Penn State.  The Nittany Lions have had tremendous success against Michigan the past two seasons but they are a far less talented/experienced team in 2010.  Both teams need this game in the worst way as each squad sits a precarious 1-2 in the Big Ten and needs a win to get back to .500 in the league.  Penn State enters the game this weekend with a 4-3 record and is coming off a road win against Minnesota last week.  Michigan, once again, is looking to get bowl eligible while ending a two game losing streak.

When Michigan has the ball:

Michigan has continued to play well on the offensive side of the ball but in the past two games penalties and turnovers have prevented the offense from really firing on all cylinders.  The offense still averages a whopping 530 yards and 36 points per contest through the season’s first seven games. 

The Penn State defense has been a solid unit thus far and they rank in the upper third of the nation in most major defensive categories.  However, I take these statistics with a grain of salt because Penn State’s defense that was in place to start the year is in absolute tatters.  Penn State will be missing both of their starting safeties and both starting defensive ends in this game and they are about as battered and bruised as a defense can be.  Clearly under-manned this past week, the Nittany Lions gave up a whopping 433 yards to a Minnesota offense that hasn’t exactly lit up the scoreboard over the course of the 2010 season.  Needless to say, the Penn State defense is ripe for Michigan to exploit.

Denard Robinson clearly was not healthy the past two games and hopefully the bye week served to heal both his shoulder and the recurring knee bruise that had cost him a step in the run game.  Robinson must be quicker and more efficient with his decisions this weekend and he cant’ be afraid to keep the ball on the read option as he will be matched up against back-up defensive ends for Penn State that he could beat one on one in his sleep.  Look for Robinson to return to early season form and run wild again this weekend as the offensive line (with a healthy David Molk) will open plenty of holes for Robinson and the rest of the ground game to take advantage of.

Once again, and I say this every week lately, I hope to see more of Hopkins this weekend as Michigan needs to establish a power running threat to keep the defense honest.  Also, Shaw’s return at full strength could provide a little extra speed to the backfield.

The wide receivers will have opportunities to make plays in this game with both veteran Penn State safeties sidelined.  Look for Michigan to test the screen game early to see if Penn State is able to make key open field tackles on the edge.  If Penn State struggles at the boundaries, Roy Roundtree will have himself a big game.  It will also be interesting to see if Michigan can potentially take advantage of the tight ends running seam routes due to the inexperience that will be on display in the deep middle of the defense.

 I am very intrigued to see if Rodriguez has added any new wrinkles to the offense over the bye week (i.e. jet-sweep series) and whether or not we’ll see any adjustments made specifically for the Penn State game since the staff was given two full weeks to prepare.

When Penn State has the ball:

Robert Bolden has had a decent freshman season so far but sophomore walk-on Matt McGloin will be the starting quarterback for the Nittany Lions this weekend as Bolden continues to recover from a concussion he suffered last weekend in Minnesota.  McGloin, in relief of Bolden last week, struggled in a 6-13 appearance against a terrible Minnesota pass defense.

Penn State’s offense has been, to put it bluntly, absolutely terrible.  The Nittany Lions rank 99^th in the country in scoring offense (just over 20 ppg) while gaining less than 340 total yards per contest.  Bolden had shown signs of maturation, including an 11-13 pre-injury performance last weekend, but with McGloin at the helm Michigan should finally have a shot at putting a stop to an opposing offense.  Evan Royster does return, and will more than likely become Penn State’s career rushing yard leader this weekend, but he has struggled so far this season behind a patchwork inexperienced offensive line.

A healthy Mike Martin will wreak absolute havoc in the center of the Penn State offensive line and I would expect Craig Roh to spend a decent amount of time at defensive end this weekend as Penn State has reverted to a more normalized Big Ten style offense following the death of the “Spread HD” that occurred with Clark’s graduation.  Kenny Demens, if he can have the same impact against the run game as he did last weekend, could be in line for a big game, as Penn State will be forced to feed Royster to protect McGloin.  Hopefully Greg Robinson will dial up the pressure against an inexperienced quarterback (similar to the Notre Dame game) and force McGloin into early mistakes that will cause Penn State to have to play from behind. 

Even the secondary could be in line for a decent game this week as McGloin’s not likely to be very effective through the air and the Penn State receivers have not done much to speak of through seven games.  Rumors have swirled all week about speedy freshman Ray Vinopal starting at deep safety with Cam Gordon taking Carvin Johnson’s spot and moving closer to the line of scrimmage but no one will truly know if any moves were made during the open week until kickoff Saturday night.

Hopefully the defense can use this opportunity against a bad offense to cobble their confidence back together heading into the homestretch of the season.

Upshot:

With McGloin as the Penn State starting quarterback, Michigan has no excuse not to win this game.  The Penn State offense is truly awful and if Michigan’s defense, which has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game, cannot slow this offense down then Michigan will be in danger of losing out to end the season.  

The offense is going to get back on track this weekend and I expect Michigan to get out to a fast start and to force McGloin to play from behind.  Penn State will not be able to keep up with Michigan’s offense and the Michigan defense will perform better following the bye week.

It is time for Michigan and Rich Rodriguez to start to make their own luck and this weekend in Happy Valley is where it will start.

Prediction:  Michigan 38-17

Job Security

Unfortunately, the one question that just won’t die during this Michigan season is how many wins does Rich Rodriguez need to have at the end of the season in order to keep his job going into 2011.

I am going to stick with my original pre-season predictions, which only consider regular season results.  I do believe that if Rodriguez were to be let go, David Brandon would not wait until after a bowl game (provided Michigan acquires their sixth win) to make a move if he thought one was necessary.  Here’s a refresher on the four scenarios that I originally proposed:

1.     8+ Wins – Eight or more victories and a minimum .500 record in the Big Ten coupled with tons of returning talent and it is a no-brainer that Rich Rod returns to coach a team in 2011 that will be primed to make a run to the first Big Ten Championship game in Indianapolis.

2.     7 Wins including 2 of 3 Rivals – This is the only other scenario that I believe guarantees Rich his job and in order to get the 2 out of 3 rivalry games he will have to get a win in Columbus to feel safe going into bowl prep and the off-season.

3.     7 Wins – This is the one situation that I truly can only speculate on what David Brandon would ultimately decide.  7 wins and a sub .500 Big Ten record would not be the ideal year 3 result, but this situation would almost come down to whether Brandon truly believes the program is on the cusp of achieving greatness with Rodriguez at the helm in 2011.

4.     6 Wins – If Michigan ends the season losing 6 of their last 7, even I, one of the staunchest Rodriguez supporters around, would ultimately concede that it is time to turn the page.  6 wins after the hot start Michigan had would leave them a pathetic 2-6 in the Big Ten and Rich Rod looking for work.

Which scenario is most likely?

I believe that scenarios 1 and 3 are the most likely and realistic outcomes of the 2010 season with five games to go.  I tend to believe that Scenario 1 is still a distinct possibility with the talent that this team has on offense.  The next three games are an obviously crucial stretch due to the fact that it is more than likely that Michigan will be the favored team in each of the next three games.

Scenario 3 would more than likely be the result of dropping one of the next three and it would leave David Brandon with a very tough decision moving forward.  To all those who want so quickly to show Rich the door, do you really think someone else will come in and turn it around right away considering we’ve spent the last three off-seasons recruiting numerous offensive players who were brought in specifically for their ability to play in the spread?  In the event of Scenario 3, my only hope is that Brandon makes a swift decision either way so that the program can move forward and get back to where it needs to be.

What does everyone else think?  Is scenario 3 good enough for you?

The Michigan Defense

Through seven games, it is abundantly clear that this is one of the worst Michigan defenses in history and many people are choosing to blame the 3-3-5 scheme as the primary culprit of Michigan’s defensive woes.  Many people are quick to proclaim that Rodriguez “does not care about the defense”, but do they honestly think that it doesn’t even bother Rodriguez when his defense is costing him games, and potentially, his job??  The scheme is not the problem with this defense; experience and talent are the primary issues.  West Virginia had tremendous success with this defensive scheme in Rich Rod’s tenure in Morgantown.  Jeff Casteel took over the defensive coordinators job and implemented the 3-3-5 as the primary defensive scheme for the Mountaineers in 2002 and the West Virginia defense turned into a solid unit over Rich’s time as evidenced by the following statistics:

Season	Total Yards Per Game	Points Per Game
2003	380.4	21.3
2004	328.5	19.6
2005	293.5	16.3
2006	324.2	20.6
2007	291.9	17.3

Yes, Rodriguez was not able to bring Casteel with him to Ann Arbor but he brought numerous other members of his defensive staff and he has also brought in a defensive coordinator who has accomplished the rare feat of coaching both a Super Bowl Champion and a college National Champion.  Michigan fans, myself included, would do just about anything to have a defense put up numbers anywhere near those seasons that were produced by the West Virginia defense.

The primary counter-argument to these numbers comes from people who claim that these stats somehow aren’t valid because they came against Big East competition.  West Virginia finished their best defensive year (2007) squaring off against an Oklahoma Sooner offense quarterbacked by Sam Bradford that was averaging over 43 points per game.  They held the Sooners to 28 points, 15 below their season average, and held Sam Bradford to a paltry 7.3 yards per pass attempt.  Also, does anyone honestly think that the Indiana team that Michigan gave up over 500 total yards of offense to a few weeks back has an offense that is on par with some of the high-octane Louisville offenses and Ray Rice led Rutgers squads that Rodriguez faced off against during his final few seasons at West Virginia?

Experience and talent, and even more importantly, actual gin-ame experience are the keys to fielding a great defensive unit.  One concrete example that offers hope for the Michigan defense moving forward is the transition that the West Virginia defense underwent between 2006 and 2007.  The 2006 West Virginia defense was stout against the run (13^th in the nation), but they could not defend the pass if their life depended on it and wound up the 109^th ranked pass defense in the nation while giving up over 2,800 yards through the air.  The 2006 West Virginia pass defense returned only one starter in the secondary going into the 2006 season and they were otherwise forced to play young freshman and sophomores over the course of the season (sound familiar).  In stark contrast, 2007 saw every member of the secondary return for the Mountaineers and West Virginia predictably catapulted from the bottom of the FBS rankings into the 11^th ranked pass defense (#4 total defense) in the entire country.  The following tables shows the 2007 defensive starters and returning starters are highlighted:

The 2007 West Virginia defense had only 6 returning starters, but they had a wealth of experience in the secondary coupled with a great player up front in Keilen Dykes who was an All Big-East selection (Mike Martin??).  One thing that stands out about this defense is that only 2 of the starters were not upper-classmen and only one freshman was a starter on this defense.  West Virginia was breaking in an entirely new linebacking corps that season, but the experience up front and in the secondary only served to help the new linebackers succeed. 

Michigan certainly won’t be an all upper-classmen defense next season, but they will only lose three “starters” to graduation.  The returning starters, along with nearly all the rest of the 2-deep depth chart, will have an all-important extra year of playing time and experience in the system. 

James Rogers, Greg Banks, and Jonas Mouton will be the only losses from the starting group going into 2011.  Michigan will upgrade at Greg Banks position by having a player in Jibreel Black that will have a full year of experience under his belt along with an offseason to bulk up.   James Rogers will be replaced by one of the three true freshmen that will all have valuable playing experience from this season.  Mike Jones, who had a promising start to the season but lost the remainder of his 2010 to a broken leg, will adequately replace Jonas Mouton who has not displayed the type of consistency any Michigan fan would hope to see from a 3-year starting linebacker.  Also, don’t forget that Michigan could be potentially have an important returnee in their secondary in the form of Troy Woolfolk provided that he is able to return from his injury that he suffered this fall.

Rodriguez must shoulder more of the blame with the press, but the sad reality is that attrition and unfortunate circumstances have put Michigan’s defense in a bind unlike one you would ever expect to see at a big time college football program.  No offense to Jordan Kovacs but a walk-on safety should ever be a four-year starter at a school like Michigan if the program is running the right way.  Michigan’s defense will be better next year with an infusion of talent from the younger classes of the program to go along with added gains that will come from a full off-season of workouts. 

However, at the end of the day, it is still the 2010 season and I hope the staff spent their bye week working on a heavy dose of fundamentals to prevent this defense from continuing to make basic mistakes down the stretch.

Better Times Ahead

Overall, losing the Iowa game at home in front of a fired-up homecoming crowd was yet another blow to Michigan’s attempt to truly put the program back on the map.  You will hear opinions ad nauseum the next two weeks that the losses to Iowa and Michigan State (at home nonetheless) and a matching 5-2 record through seven games proves that this team hasn’t taken any steps forward from the squad that tanked in the Big Ten last year. 

However, in my honest view, this a better team than last year’s (hands down) but it is a group that is still so young and inexperienced at so many key positions that they are just shooting themselves in the foot to many times to beat Top-15 teams.  In all honesty though, who does not think that Michigan could have won either of the past two games?  Who doesn’t think that if we don’t go -7 in turnover margin over the last two that we maybe are sitting at 7-0 today?  This team is on the cusp of turning the corner and this pivotal 3-game stretch after the bye week will give them the opportunity to bounce back and pave the way to an 8-win regular season and a potential ticket to the Gator Bowl on New Year’s day.

I know the penalties and the turnovers have many clamoring for Jim Harbaugh, (sidenote: people wearing Stanford shirts to Michigan games can stick it where the sun doesn’t shine as far as I’m concerned) but would Jim really have prevented Denard from throwing an interception or Lewan from jumping offsides? No, he absolutely would not have.  These are the growing pains that all young teams go through on their way to the top.  All this being said, here are five key developments from this past weekend’s game that I think should give us fans faith in our program moving forward:

1.     The Spread CAN work in the Big Ten

Michigan racked up 520 total yards and 28 points against the best defense in the Big Ten and more than likely one of the top defenses in the country.  Iowa has an elite defensive line and Michigan was able to run the ball for nearly 200 yards while averaging more than 5 yards per carry.

To those who make the excuse, “Well they were coming from behind and Iowa was playing soft”, look at the halftime stats and you will see that Michigan had about 225 total yards of offense which coincidentally was about the average total yardage Iowa had given up PER GAME going into this past weekend.  Denard was able to churn out 5-7 yards at a time on the ground and when Tate came in he was able to torch the Iowa secondary on multiple occasions.  This offense is truly a mismatch for a lot of the Big Ten defenses and it will not be stopped once we quit stopping ourselves.  Turnovers and penalties prevented more points from going on the board early and if Michigan can take care of the ball in the coming weeks they will put up plenty of points down the stretch.

2.     Stephen Hopkins

Hopkins looks like the heir apparent to Brandon Minor’s bulldozing running back role in the spread offense.  Hopkins, even with limited carries this weekend, looks the part of a Big Ten running back as he frequently moves the pile and is able to easily gain yardage after contact.  Hopkins 6’ 230 pound frame is tough to bring down when he’s moving downhill coming out of the backfield. Hopkins looks like he could be the answer to some of Michigan’s new-found red-zone issues so I hope that the coaching staff continues to expand his role.  I’m looking for Hopkins to be used more and more as the season progresses and I would not be surprised if he’s getting the majority of the running back carries down the home stretch of the season against more physical defenses like Wisconsin and Ohio State.

3.     Kenny Demens

Demens brought a physical and aggressive presence to the linebacking corps that we haven’t seen much of the past two years.  Granted, he made his fair share of mistakes (including not maintaining a cut-back lane on a Robinson touchdown run), but he played aggressive football and he actually found a way to make some plays.  Obi had gotten so bad that it was considered a victory if he didn’t screw up and it was refreshing to see a middle linebacker make a read and attack the ball carrier rather than sit back on his heels and wait to be blocked.  Demens’ errors are definitely correctable and I have much more faith in a first-game starter to learn from his mistakes than someone who has continued to make the same mistakes the past three years.  Yes, Demens isn’t great in pass coverage yet, but the presence he brings to the run defense will help this defense out more than people think over the last five games of the season.

4.     Taylor Lewan

First off, yes Lewan took some extremely costly penalties in this game that contributed to Michigan getting down early and he needs to learn to tone down his aggression just a touch so that it doesn’t include busting people up 20 yards away from the play.  But there is no doubt in my mind that this kid is an absolute player and is a future star at left tackle.  Despite getting pulled for a few series to get his head straight, Lewan came back in and consistently shut down a Top-5 NFL Draft Pick in Adrian Clayborn.  Lewan’s performance, sans the bone-headed penalties that come with a guy who is a redshirt-freshman, should leave Michigan fans feeling pretty good about the left tackle spot for the next few seasons.  Lewan, barring some freak injury that derails his career, will be a top-10 NFL Draft Pick whenever he ultimately decides to move on to the league.  He has the size, mobility, and nasty-streak to be a franchise left tackle and will do a great job protecting Michigan quarterback’s the next two or three seasons after this one.

5.     Junior Hemingway

Jr. is finally starting to turn into the receiver that Michigan envisioned when they recruited him.  Hemingway is finally healthy and he is proving to be a talent at the outside receiver spot.  Not only was he extremely solid in the short passing game while gaining yards after the catch, but going up and getting a poorly thrown ball from Forcier cemented Hemingway’s status as the premier deep threat on this team.  Hemingway’s physical presence and his height are different than any of our other starting receivers and he now gives our quarterbacks a safety valve to go to when they think their options are gone.  If Hemingway continues to play like this down the stretch my expectations for the offense will continue to increase for the rest of the season and heading into 2011. 

All is not lost and the next three games will tell us what kind of team we truly do have.  Lets all not forget that we all expected an 8-4/7-5 type team when the season began and we are still in a great situation to potentially reach that mark.  Support the team and support the program because betters times are ahead.

Iowa Preview

Michigan returns to the field this weekend with a tough matchup against the 15^th ranked Iowa Hawkeyes.  Another week and yet another game that brings the potential for Rich Rodriguez to earn his first true marquee Big Ten win.  These two teams played an exciting game in Iowa City last year where Michigan rallied from behind to make it a game in the fourth quarter behind a freshman Denard Robinson.  Robinson ultimately threw an interception to end Michigan’s hopes in that one and you can bet that this has been the red-letter game on his calendar for this season.

Iowa enters the game 4-1 (1-0) and coming off a bye week this past weekend.  The Hawkeyes lost in a shootout to Arizona out west and have otherwise not really been challenged against the likes of Penn State, Ball State, Iowa State, and Eastern Illinois.  Michigan is 5-1 (0-1) and is looking to get bowl eligible heading into their bye week next weekend.

When Michigan has the ball:

The Iowa defense is one of the highest rated units in the country.  Through five games the Hawkeyes are the top team in the nation in scoring defense while giving up only 10.2 points per game.  The Hawkeye defense has a true star in defensive end Adrian Clayborn who will more than likely be a top ten pick in the 2011 NFL draft.

Michigan’s offense had no trouble moving the ball against Michigan State but they just failed to convert in the red zone and turned the ball over too many times to keep themselves in the game.  This week will once again come down to Denard Robinson.  Denard will need to be less hesitant in his decisions this week and with his god-given speed he can’t be afraid to tuck the ball and run if the options are not available in the passing game.

Iowa’s run defense has given up a paltry 63 yards per game, which is good for the second lowest average in the nation.  Through five games the Hawkeyes have not even given up a single touchdown on the ground!  However, the Hawkeyes have yet to face a rushing attack like the 297-yard per game machine that Michigan will deploy in the Big House this weekend and I expect that touchdown-less streak to end early in the game on Saturday.  The Hawkeyes will run a base 4-3 defense similar to Michigan State last week and will rely on their solid front four to control the line of scrimmage and keep the Michigan ground game in check.

I expect the Michigan coaches to make more use of Stephen Hopkins this weekend, as I really do not see Vincent Smith having much success running through the teeth of the Iowa defense.  Hopkins would get the tough yards and force Iowa’s linebackers to stay disciplined and not over-pursue every run by Denard to the outside.  I do think that Iowa’s linebackers are slower than Michigan State’s and if Michigan’s offensive line can handle the front four then Michigan will definitely have big time success against the Hawkeyes on the ground.  Expect Denard to have a few more big plays in the run game this week if he is more assertive with his reads and does not hesitate on his first step.

The Hawkeye pass defense has also been stellar so far this year and they are lead by a pair of veteran safeties.  The Hawkeye secondary has played a lot of Cover 2 in the past and I would expect that trend to continue this weekend.  If Iowa is going to use this scheme then Michigan will have to attempt to exploit the corner routes and the seam routes in order to have success in the passing game.  The Hawkeyes will rarely blitz due to their front four’s ability to get pressure on opposing offenses.

Michigan’s wide receivers must play better this week.  The drops that plagued them last week cannot show up again this week if Michigan expects to win this game.  Daryl Stonum needs to show up and prove that he can be a viable receiving threat in the Big Ten after virtually disappearing since the UMass game.

Michigan will move the ball on the Iowa defense and will be able to put points on the board.  Michigan must avoid turnovers and be more efficient in the red zone this weekend.  The biggest challenge in this game falls on the offensive line who must play their best game of the season in an attempt to minimize Clayborn and company’s impact on the game.  

When Iowa has the ball:

Iowa has averaged over 33 points per game so far in 2010 and they put up 24 points against a fairly solid Penn State defense prior to their bye week.  The Hawkeyes return veteran senior Ricky Stanzi who has been extremely efficient so far this year and has avoided the turnover problems that plagued him in 2009.

Not a ton can be expected any remaining Saturday from the defensive unit that Michigan puts on the field, but I do hope that we at least see the coaching staff attempt to make some personnel changes this weekend.  If Obi Ezeh still starts at middle linebacker this week it will be a long long day again for the Wolverines on the defensive side of the ball.  I would also like to see some bodies rotate in at the free safety spot but I doubt that we will see that happen.

The Hawkeye passing game has thrown for over 250 yards per game and they will have their opportunities to do their fair share of damage against Michigan.  Stanzi has been much more proficient throwing the deep ball this year and I expect that the Iowa offense will not be afraid to air the ball out early in an attempt to get Michigan’s offense playing from behind.  Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and Marvin McNutt have been the leading receivers to this point for the Hawkeye offense.  McNutt, the former quarterback, presents a big time match-up problem for Michigan with his 6’4” height and solid speed.   

Adam Robinson is averaging nearly five yards a carry on the ground and will provide another stern test for the Michigan defense this weekend.  The Hawkeyes are averaging over 170 yards per game on the ground and Michigan struggled with big plays in the run game against the Spartans last week.  Hopefully Kenny Demens will get his shot at middle linebacker this weekend and that will maybe help Michigan defend the run.

At this point there is not a ton of hope for the defense and I simply go into every game hoping they can make enough key stops or force enough key turnovers that the offense will have a chance to win the game for us.  I do not think the Iowa offense is as talented as the Michigan State offense and it’s pretty sad when that’s my justification for hoping that Michigan’s defense might play a bit better this week.

Upshot

If Michigan takes care of the ball this weekend they will more than likely keep this game close until the very end.  Iowa is a very solid and fundamentally sound team so Michigan can not afford to get behind early in this one as the Iowa defense will make Michigan work for all the points they get.  Michigan must be more patient on offense and be content to be the grind it out for multiple first-downs type of offense that we saw early in the season rather than the version we’ve seen the past two weeks that’ has relied almost exclusively on the big play. 

Once again Rich Rod has a big change to silence his critics and prove his offense can flourish against a solid Big Ten defense.  A win this week would go a long way towards letting Michigan fans move on and forget Michigan State.  6-1, with a win over a top-15 opponent, would be a great way to go into the bye week. However, the Hawkeyes are a top 15 team for a reason and I worry that Michigan’s defense won’t be able to make enough stops to give the offense a legitimate chance to put up big points against a stout Iowa defense. 

Unfortunately, I think Michigan comes up just a bit short at home this weekend despite a great performance from Denard Robinson.

Prediction:  IOWA 34 – Michigan 28

Moving Forward

There isn’t much of a point in doing an in-depth recap of the MSU game.  Everyone who watched knows Denard finally looked human and that the defense was customarily bad.  However, despite a stinging loss to Dantonio and the Spartans, Michigan sits at 5-1 halfway through the season and any Michigan fan would have been more than happy to start this way going into the season. 

I was very disappointed with the offensive playcalling in this one and I am getting very frustrated with the staff’s insistence on making Vincent Smith the feature back when he clearly still doesn’t have his speed back and he has zero shot at moving a pile on third and one.  I have been Rodriguez’s staunchest supporter but it was an absolutely gutless move to punt late in the fourth down 34-17.  I thought he became more worried about how the final score would reflect on him rather than giving one last shot to win the game.  Enough with my mini-rant, moving on…

With the season’s second half approaching, it is clear that some issues on this team won’t be resolved for another year or two but there are other personnel moves the staff at least has to attempt to make going forward into the rest of the schedule.

Here are four potential personnel moves that I think could help Michigan in the second half of the season:

1.     Remove Obi Ezeh from the Middle Linebacker spot immediately

Obi has once again proven that he just mentally does not have what it takes to be a middle linebacker at the Big Ten level.  At this point I don’t think he could play MLB for a Division II school because his play recognition is just absolutely atrocious.  It was maddening to watch as he ran himself right out of the play (not even blocked) on both of MSU’s long touchdown runs.

Replacement: Kenny Demens.  Demens has shown ability in limited snaps and after what we’ve seen from Obi to this point can this position really hinder the defense much more?  Demens may not be as physical as Obi but he has shown better play recognition, which this defense sorely needs with the likes of Iowa, Wisconsin, and a tough running Illinois team on the schedule in the coming weeks.

2.     Add a heavy dose of Stephen Hopkins to the running back rotation

It took just two carries against Michigan State to see exactly why Rich and staff recruited Hopkins to come to Michigan.  At 6’ and 230 pounds Hopkins is a guy that will rarely fail to get you the tough yards that you need.  I was baffled that he did not see any carries the rest of the game after being such a big factor on the second-quarter scoring drive.  Neither Smith nor Shaw has the ability to gut out the tough yards that we need and it’s not always going to be able to be Denard carrying the ball on 3^rd and short.  Rich and the staff keep saying they want to get Hopkins more touches and it’s time for them to actually make good on that statement and get the ball in this kids hands.

3.     Make Craig Roh a full-time defensive end

Roh played a much better game this weekend when he had his hand in the dirt on most snaps.  Roh’s perfectly suited to be a weakside defensive end and rush the passer.  Van Bergen has come on in the past few weeks on the strong side, which make Roh much less liable against the run.  I want the coaching staff to just put Roh’s hand in the dirt and go to a 4-2-5 look in order to maximize one of the few talented players on the defensive side of the ball.

If they insist on keeping Roh at linebacker, they have to at least let Jibreel Black be the full-time third down pass rushing defensive end rather than Greg Banks.  Black’s played very well in his opportunities the past few weeks and has some of the best ability on the team to rush the passer.

4.     Attempt to find a replacement for Cam Gordon at Free Safety

Cam has too frequently taken terrible angles and has shown virtually zero recognition to break on any routes when the ball is in the air.  Cam also routinely tries for the big hit rather than wrapping up and making the sure tackle.  This backfired against MSU and left him looking pretty foolish as Baker and Bell racked up plenty of yards after contact.

I do not understand how Marvin Robinson, a guy who was our best defensive recruit and had the coaches raving throughout fall practice has not been given a shot at this position.  He was a deep safety his entire high school career and the coaches haven’t even lined him up back there at this point.  Ray Vinopal may be a small freshman, but his speed and football IQ might make him more competent against the passing game.

Summary

I usually am firmly in the camp of the “if the coaches had better players then they would play them” group.  However, it is painfully clear at this point that the defense can’t get much worse statistically and there need to be some changes made.  Some guys are pure gamers and show up big and make the big plays when it matters most.  Practice All-Americans routinely turn to duds and it can happen the opposite way around as well.  What will it possibly hurt to give some of these guys a chance to potentially show what they can do?

Final Prediction vs. MSU

This game has continued to pick up more steam nationally as the week has rolled on and it’s importance has grown by the day as it is clear that a win in this game will truly vault one of these two programs back into national prominence.

 Here are my three key players for each squad going into this weekend’s game:

Michigan State

1.     Kirk Cousins – If Cousins can take care of the ball and has time to throw on play-action he will put up huge numbers against a weak Michigan secondary.

2.     Keshawn Martin – Martin is lethal as a receiver but is even more dangerous in the return game.  Martin’s talent, along with Michigan’s general special teams ineptitude, clearly swings the special teams in favor of the Spartans.

3.     Greg Jones – Jones will need to come up with a huge game if the Spartans have any shot at slowing down Denard Robinson.  Jones will need to be decisive with his gaps and not allow Robinson to break outside the tackle box or he will spend all day watching #16’s back as he runs down the field.

Michigan

1.     Denard Robinson – This was the easiest one on the board but as Denard goes so goes the Michigan offense.  If Denard can continue on his torrid pace Michigan will be in this game until the very end.

2.     Patrick Omameh – It is rare to see an offensive lineman as a key player to the game but Omameh’s ability to get to the second level is unparalleled amongst Big Ten lineman.  If Omameh is able to turn Greg Jones into a non-factor in this game then Michigan’s offense will have no problem running the ball and putting up major points on the Spartans.

3.     Craig Roh – With the return of Brandon Herron this weekend to help fill the linebacker hybrid spot, Roh will be able to see more time at defensive end where he belongs.  If he can effectively rush the passer then this will make thing much easier on Michigan’s young defensive backs and provide a big boost to Michigan’s chance to win this game.

Michigan States game plan will be to establish the run and try to control the ball as much as possible while attempting to stop the run defensively.  Michigan State can not have three turnovers this week like they did last week against Wisconsin because Michigan’s offense is just too good to be given opportunities.

Michigan’s offense will continue to do what they do best by running the ball for big gains and moving the ball with a highly efficient passing offense.  I do hope that Michigan goes a little deeper into the playbook in this one and that we maybe even see a little trickery from Coach Rod.  Michigan must be willing to throw the ball early to open up the running lanes and put themselves in manageable down-and-distance situations. 

This game has all the makings of an intense inter-state rivalry shootout.  I don’t see either squad having a ton of success stopping the other and this game could very well be decided by whoever has the ball last.

Turnovers will be a key as always as neither team can afford to give the opposing offense any extra chances.  Michigan’s special teams have worried me all year that they will cost the Wolverines a game and I truly hope that this is not that game.

The Spartans will be playing with fire due to the return of Dantonio but do not underestimate how much this game means to Michigan and Rich Rodriguez.  With the Big House undoubtedly set to break the record for the largest crowd ever to watch a football game this weekend, I expect the Wolverines to feed off the home crowd.

Even though Michigan State will hold Michigan to a lower yardage total than others have so far, Michigan will still find ways to score early and often.  The Spartans will have their fair share of success against the Michigan defense early but the Michigan defense will get that key stop in the second half that allows the offense to finish off the Spartans.

Prediction: MICHIGAN 38-31

When Michigan State has the Ball:

This is the match-up that has Spartan fans salivating for this weekend.  They all have watched Michigan’s defense struggle (to put it mildly) against opponents that none would confuse for offensive juggernauts.

The State offense has been solid so far this year while putting up over 36 points per game.  On the flip side, Michigan’s defense is giving up over 25 points a game despite just finishing the easiest stretch in their schedule.

Rush Offense:

Michigan State has been extremely effective so far running the ball.  The Spartans come into the game averaging an impressive 220 yards per game on the ground (20^th nationally).  Michigan, through five games, has given up just over 125 yards per game on the ground.

An impressive tandem of tailbacks in sophomore Edwin Baker and true freshman Le’Veon Bell leads the Spartan rushing attack.  Both Baker and Bell are averaging over 7 yards per carry so far this season.  Baker, the expected starter going into the season, has had a few more carries so far this season than Bell, but Bell has been the biggest surprise of the Spartan offense.  Bell has great size for a running back at 6’2” 230 pounds and has shown tremendous ability to use his size breaking tackles.  His physical running style combined with solid speed is definitely cause for concern for the Wolverine defense. 

It will be very interesting to see how Michigan’s uncharacteristic 3-man front holds up against a power-rushing attack like the one that Michigan State will bring to Ann Arbor.  Mike Martin will do his job in the middle but the game might ultimately be decided (and what a scary thought this is) by the ability of Michigan’s linebackers to diagnose plays at the line and fill the proper run gaps.  If ever a time were necessary for Obi Ezeh to snap out of a four year funk, it would be this weekend for this game.  However, considering I’ve given up on Obi, I would not be entirely shocked to see Ezeh struggle and be replaced by Kenny Demens.  It is imperative for the Michigan run defense that Jonas Mouton play up to his ability and find a way to be the disruptive force that we all know he is capable of being.

Greg Banks will need to have a much better game for Michigan this week and it is absolutely crucial the Ryan Van Bergen hold up at the point of attack.   Van Bergen has been quiet so far and it is time for him to step up and have a big game this weekend.

Michigan State is going to do everything they can to establish a punishing ground game and keep the ball away from the potent Michigan offense.  This match-up might be the key to the whole game, as Michigan’s defense simply cannot allow State to grind out yards and chew up 7-8 minutes of clock on each and every scoring drive.

Pass Offense

Kirk Cousins has taken his fair share of criticism but I am firmly in the camp that the guy is a good starting quarterback.  Cousins threw two picks last week against the Badgers but made all the big-time plays when the Spartans needed him in the second half.  This week he faces off against a Michigan defense that just might be one of the worst in the country given the wonderful schemes being contrived by Greg Robinson right now.

Cousins does not lack weapons to throw to as the Spartans have a solid crew of wide receivers.  The receiving numbers are pretty equally divided between Mark Dell, Keshawn Martin, and B.J. Cunningham.  Martin is not a large wide receiver but he has the type of speed (as evidenced by his return touchdown last weekend) that could give Michigan’s defense (Jordan Kovacs) absolute fits out of the slot position.  Cunningham and Dell are both bigger receivers (6’2”) that should enjoy solid size advantages over J.T. Floyd and James Rogers.  The Spartans also have an effective weapon at tight end in Charlie Gantt who should have no trouble finding open seams in the middle of Michigan’s defense.

With Michigan stuck in the 3-man front, it is crucial that they dial up the right blitz packages in the right situations this weekend.  When Cousins was afforded too much time in last years game he routinely was able to pick up 15+ yards on quarterback runs as all 8 Wolverines that dropped into coverage were nowhere within the same zip code as the line of scrimmage.  I definitely expect Michigan to use more of the 3-man front package where Mike Martin bounces out to end this weekend, as they were able to have some modest success with it against the Hoosiers.

Michigan must find a way to get Craig Roh involved this weekend.  I feel like they’ve essentially taken him away from his god-given pass rushing talent by forcing him to cover as a linebacker, which he is quite clearly ill-suited to do.  Mouton will need to apply pressure off the edges when called upon and for the love of god please never blitz our only competent corner in J.T. Floyd.

James Rogers will not make it through this game as the starting boundary corner.  Expect an assortment of freshman to all get their crack at his job this weekend.  Kovacs must be kept close to the line to help against the run as he had one of his best games last year against MSU when this was all he was called upon to do.  Cam Gordon must play his most disciplined game at deep safety this weekend as the Spartans will assuredly try to get the play-action game rolling while exploiting the seams up the middle of the Michigan defense.

I’m hopeful that Michigan will be better against a more traditional passing team like State but I can’t help but shudder when I think back to the UMass game and how frequently play-action totally gashed the Michigan defense.

As will be the motto all season, the Michigan defense just needs to get their key stops here and there in order to let Denard and the offense do their thing. 

When Michigan has the Ball:

This is the match-up that everyone has been waiting to see: Michigan’s high-octane spread offense and Denard Robinson against a legitimate Big Ten defense.

Michigan’s offense has been nothing short of phenomenal so far this season while racking up 565 yards a game (2^nd in the nation) and scoring a remarkable 41.4 points per contest.  On the opposite side, the Spartans enter this game ranked 41^st in total yards allowed and 36^th in scoring allowed while giving up just 18.6 points per game.

Run Offense

The rushing game is the most important facet of this on-going rivalry series as the team that racks up the most rushing yards has won an astonishing 30 out of the last 33 contests.  Michigan has been simply dominant on the ground so far with Denard Robinson leading the charge in a ground attack that is amassing over 324 yards per game.  Michigan State has been stout against the run so far giving up just over 100 yards per contest. 

The Michigan State run defense is going to be spearheaded by senior play-making linebacker Greg Jones.  It’s not too often you see the likely defensive player of the year in the Big Ten (Jones) match up with the conference’s early front runner for offensive player of the year and it should definitely be fun for fans of both sides to watch.  Jones is an excellent linebacker and will make his fair share of plays in this game, but I do think it will be interesting to see how he handles shedding lineman that have the ability to get to the second level (See Omameh vs. T’eo).  State has good size at the defensive tackle position that will be tougher for the Michigan offensive line to handle than anything they’ve seen so far.

I think State’s rush defense totals don’t tell the true story of their ability to defend against the run as they’ve not really faced a bona fide rushing offense outside of Wisconsin this past weekend.  Wisconsin was able to rack up 165 yards on the ground while averaging over 5 yards per carry.  A bonus for Michigan within that statistic is that Wisconsin’s speed back, on only 10 carries, was able to rack up 100 yards for the game.

Simply put, the Spartan defense has not seen anyone even close to what Denard Robinson brings to the table in the running game.  Denard has the unique ability to find a crease within the line and has shown the ability to break the big play any time he gets past the first level.  The key for the Spartans will be making sure that the linebackers clean up and do not allow Robinson to get to the secondary levels because once he is matched up one-on-one in the secondary I’m not sure that many players in college football can stop him.

Michigan will need a healthy Michael Shaw this week as Vincent Smith just simply does not have the quickness right now to exploit the chief advantage (speed) that I think Michigan’s offense will have in this ballgame. 

I expect Michigan State, similar to last year’s defensive game plan, will attempt to sell out against the run and force the Wolverines to go to the air early.  Hopefully this year, with a sophomore starting quarterback, Rich Rod won’t be so hesitant to comply.

Passing Offense

Not only amazing with his feet, Denard Robinson also has put together a top five quarterback efficiency rating in the entire country through five games.  Not bad for a guy who couldn’t throw to save his life last year!  Michigan State’s weakest spot on their defense is in the secondary where they are giving up just over 227 yards per game through the air.  Although the passing defense was much improved against Wisconsin, they did allow Dayne Crist and Notre Dame to amass nearly 370 yards through the air to go along with four passing touchdowns.

Michigan will need to use play-action early and often as I suspect Michigan State will use a lot of man-to-man coverage on the outside in their attempt to prevent Robinson from beating them with his feet.  Michigan has proven to have a nice arsenal of play-action passing options that have been very effective so far.  I would like to see them return to the tight-end drag roll-out series that was so effective in the first two-games. 

Michigan will also use the screen game early and often in an attempt to spread the Spartan defense laterally.  Michigan’s wide receiver group has quickly gelled and is rapidly becoming one of the best units in the Big Ten.  Roy Roundtree has been his typical consistent self and is rapidly improving in terms of making the first man miss on the bubble screen.  The emergence of Junior Hemingway this past week was crucial as it provides Michigan a more physical deep threat to complement their slew of slot receivers.  Hopefully Daryl Stonum emerges again and is able to recapture some of the magic he had last year in a career game against the Spartans in East Lansing.

The Spartans have now seen 5 Michigan games on film and seemingly the only potential chink in Denard’s armor right now is his slight inconsistency throwing the deep ball.  If I were Mark Dantonio, I would play the odds that Denard’s lowest percentage play is to throw deep and blitz frequently while routinely stackig 7-8 in the box.  In order to have a shot at stopping Denard, you can’t live in fear of the big play by playing back on your heels.  You have to accept that an athlete like him will make some plays over the course of 60 minutes.  However, if Denard is able to complete the deep ball early, it will really change the complexion of the game and might just force Michigan State to re-evaluate their game plan at halftime.

Michigan State has the best defensive unit that Michigan has faced so far.  I do not think the Spartans will be gashed as bad as others have been by Michigan, but I also do not think they will be able to truly stop the Wolverine offense.  Michigan’s big play ability is the ultimate game-breaker and the Wolverines should have no trouble putting points on the board in this one.