Before this season began, if someone had told you that our basketball team would sweep Michigan State, last longer in the tournament than Michigan State, and finish in fourth place in the Big Ten, I think that you would have immediately suggested to that person that they might want to check in to a padded suite at the nearest mental institution. In what was supposed to be a rebuilding year, John Beilein and the young Wolverines have blown any and all expectations out of the water. It has been a tremendous run these past two months to get from that first win in East Lansing to the “third-round” NCAA Tournament matchup they have with the Duke Blue Devils tomorrow. One thing is for sure, win or lose tomorrow, Beilein and Michigan have proven unequivocally that they will be one of the top teams in the Big Ten in 2011 and that this is clearly a program on the rise.
Speaking of Duke, how perfect is it that after the events of the past week that these two teams will meet in a tournament game? A quick recap for those who missed the last weeks documentary: Jalen Rose and the Fab 5 members that took part in the documentary that aired last Sunday night were not shy in expressing the disdain that they held for Duke when they were college kids. Rose event went so far as to argue that Duke would not recruit him because Coach K would only take “Uncle Tom’s” such as Grant Hill who came from 2-parent black households and not kids like Jalen who came from rough and tumble backgrounds. This prompted Hill to write a scathing editorial in the New York Times over feelings that were clearly meant to depict Jalen’s thought process 20 years ago.
Lets just say the last week has definitely raised some awareness levels when it comes to the Michigan and Duke rivalry of the early 90’s. I do not really think that this adds anything to the game on the court tomorrow, but it has surely added a level of intrigue that the national media has snatched onto and tried to turn into a major story.
Duke was the 4th ranked number one seed on selection Sunday, however, with the return of freshman sensation Kyrie Irving, they very well might be the last team in this tournament by the time everything is said and done and One Shining Moment is played in early April. Irving gives Duke the hands down best 6th man in the country with his ability to shoot the ball from deep and his tremendous speed and athleticism that allows him to get to the rim at will.
All gushing over Irving aside, Duke also boasts a pair of senior stars who have carried the Blue Devils through the 2010-11 season. Nolan Smith, who was the ACC player of this year, averaged just under 21 points per game while his fellow senior Kyle Singler has averaged 17 points per game. The experience and talent that these two bring to the table makes Duke an extremely tough out in this tournament as each of these guys are proven winners who can carry their team to a victory.
Duke also has a quality set of role players who do an excellent job of complementing the strengths of their stars. The Plumlee brothers both have excellent size and will wreak havoc on the boards tomorrow while Ryan Kelly, an underrated sophomore forward, has started to provide some timely three point shooting and rebounding for the Blue Devils. Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins provide more talent at the guard possession and both are lethal shooters who have the ability to torch an opponent if they find their stroke early in a game.
A lot of people are not giving Michigan much of a chance to win the game tomorrow, but these people quickly forget that Michigan has gone toe-to-toe with both Kansas (OT loss) and Ohio State (3 single digit losses). Michigan has shown the ability to slow the game down against top teams and turn games into low possession contests that favor their style of play and can keep them hanging around close enough to have an opportunity to win the game at the end. In fact, on a per possession basis, Michigan plays at the second lowest rate in the tournament (trailing only Wisconsin).
One of the many fans primary concerns going into tomorrow’s game is whether or not Michigan will be able to contend with the size that Duke brings to the table. Yes, Duke has the potential to start a huge front line if they have Plumlee, Kelly, and Singler all in the game at the same time. However, I do not have many concerns with this because John Beilein has shown that he has a tremendous ability to create mismatches on the offensive end that can force teams to go away from larger lineups. When Michigan played Kansas (one of the tallest teams in the nation) earlier in the year, Beilein made sure to use his small lineup to his advantage by getting guys like Novak easy looks from three. It will be very interesting to see if Novak can shoot the ball well again tomorrow and force Duke into a smaller lineup.
The bigger concern that I have going into tomorrow’s game is how Michigan will be able to slow down the Irving and Smith backcourt combination. These are undoubtedly the best two guards that Michigan has seen all year and Darius Morris is really going to have to step up on the defensive end if Michigan is going to have a shot to win this game. It will be interesting to see if Michigan tries to go zone early in an attempt to pack the lane and force the Blue Devils to start the game shooting from the outside.
On the offensive side of things I think Michigan will have an extremely favorable matchup for either Darius Morris or Tim Hardaway Jr. Nolan Smith is a solid defender but he will not be able to defend both of these guys and I would love for Duke to try and start Singler off on Hardaway Jr. I think we will ultimately see a healthy dose of Irving guarding Morris and Nolan Smith taking his turns at trying to slow down and stop Timmy.
With the way that Michigan has played the past two months, there is no doubt in my mind that they will be in this ball game. It is going to take a tremendous effort from everyone on the team and someone will have to step up and have the game of his life in order to carry Michigan forward into the Sweet 16.
As much as I want to believe that this magical run can keeping going, Duke is just so talented, deep, and experienced that I think they take care of business against Michigan tomorrow on their way to another final four. No matter what happens tomorrow, Michigan is on the rise, and for that, we should all be looking with a bright eye towards the future.
Final score?
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