Wisconsin Preview: Part 2

Today I preview the Michigan offense and their matchup against the Wisconsin defense in addition to giving my final prediction on this weekend’s game.

When Michigan has the ball:

Michigan will be facing a very similar defense this weekend to the Iowa Hawkeye defense that they put up a ton of yards against early in the year.  Both units are veteran laden units who have an absolutely dominant defensive end.  J.J. Watt has had a phenomenal season and anyone that watched his performance against Ohio State knows that he has the ability wreak havoc on any offense.  Going into this weekend, I see two pretty clear areas that Michigan must have success with in order to put a bunch of points on the board against the Badgers:

1.     Turnovers

2.     Red-zone Efficiency

Michigan’s offense has been giving the ball up at an absolutely alarming rate during Big Ten season.  In the last two weeks alone, the Michigan offense has coughed up 10 turnovers to the likes of Illinois and Purdue.  Denard Robinson, in particular has turned into a bit of a turnover machine recently.  Wisconsin is simply too good for the Wolverines to provide them with any extra opportunities.  The red-zone is the area where the Michigan offense lives and dies.  We never see Michigan have any problem moving the ball between the 20’s but sometimes it seems like they get lost the closer they get to the goal line.  I personally feel that Rich Rodriguez might as well start treating the red-zone like 4-down territory and call plays accordingly.  Everyone in the stadium, including Wisconsin, knows that Michigan kicking a field goal is an absolute joke so I’d prefer to see Rodriguez get aggressive and go for 6 every time he gets down in the red zone. 

The ultimate key to Michigan’s success or failure this weekend is going to be Denard Robinson and his decision-making.  Denard must realize that he cannot throw the ball late over the middle.  He is usually making the right read but he needs to realize that if he is seeing it too late he is better served to pull the ball down and run.  Robinson’s passing is going to be extremely crucial for Michigan’s success in this game.  Wisconsin will almost assuredly go with a game plan similar to the one Michigan State employed that basically dares Michigan to throw the ball.  Rodriguez and Calvin Magee need to get Denard easy rollout hitch/curl type throws early to build his confidence in the passing game.  If Denard is accurate early, he will have a chance to put up big big numbers in the passing game.  Also, if he is able to get things rolling through the air look for him to have an excellent shot at breaking off one of his trademark long runs that Michigan has so sorely missed the last few weeks.

The use of the running backs is something that I’m very interested to see this weekend.  Vincent Smith, who has played very well the last two weeks, is not the ideal back to be running between the tackles against the Badgers.  Smith was able to have success last year against Wisconsin when Magee found ways to get him the ball in space on stretch-zone runs and screen plays.  I hope that Michigan gives Hopkins the ball between the tackles and does their best to keep Smith in space where he will have his best opportunity to make an impact on the game. 

The receivers will get their numbers called early and they simply can’t drop any easy passes in the early going.  Roundtree has been playing great but he has had crucial drops early in the past few games that have really hurt the offense.  Look for Hemingway and Stonum to test the Badgers over the top throughout the game.  Particularly, I think Michigan has a definite speed advantage on the outside with Stonum and I think they will try to put one or two deep balls in the air for him to track down early in the game on Saturday.

If Taylor Lewan is unable to play this weekend, I do not see any of the Michigan tackles having a ton of success single-handedly blocking Watt.  We saw what Kerrigan did to Huyge this past weekend and I worry that this weekend would bring more of the same.  Hopefully Lewan is able to go and he is able to replicate the great performance he had while shutting down Adrian Clayborne of Iowa. The offensive line must play their best game of the year against a very physical Badger front seven.

Michigan will definitely have a speed advantage in this game on the offensive side of the ball and they must do everything they can to get all of their athletes out in space.  Wisconsin is solid in the box, but they struggle when you are able to get to the edge.  I have a sneaky suspicion that we will see some new looks from Rodriguez and Magee this weekend that are designed to create mismatches with Michigan’s speedy slots and the Wisconsin outside linebackers.

Upshot

As I said yesterday, the Badgers are going to score, and most likely are going to score a lot.  Michigan will need to be aggressive defensively and hope to force some turnovers.  Greg Robinson can’t afford to have his defense sit back and let Wisconsin grind the clock out in this game.  Rodriguez and Magee must be aggressive in this game as the Badgers are going to look to take away Denard Robinson’s legs. 

I definitely think Michigan has a shot to win this ball game but they are going to have to play their best game of the year.  Denard Robinson will have to have a September-like performance if Michigan is going to truly have a shot to pull off the upset.  Unfortunately, at the end of the day, I think Wisconsin is too deep and too talented for the Wolverines.  The Badgers are one of the most balanced teams in the country and their punishing running game and the ever-efficient Scott Tolzien will allow them to put up enough points to beat Michigan and leave Rich Rodriguez and the Wolverines with just one last opportunity to get their signature win for 2010.

Prediction – Wisconsin 38 – Michigan 31