Michigan currently sits at 7-3 (3-3) on the season. What an opportunity the Wolverines have the next two Saturday’s as they are about to close out their season against two top ten opponents. A win in either of these games would be the statement game that Rich Rodriguez and the Michigan program need to declare that they are “back” and are going to be a force to be reckoned with in 2011. A win in either of these last two games would also likely guarantee the Wolverines a New Years Day bowl bid, which would certainly help in recruiting.
This weekend Michigan gets the Wisconsin Badgers who are one road loss at Michigan State away from being an undefeated team. The Badgers have had an impressive home win over Buckeyes and have also gone on the road to win a tough game at Iowa. Wisconsin is the quintessential Big Ten team who is content to run the ball down your throat all day and play stifling defense. To say the least, Michigan will have their hands full this weekend.
When Wisconsin has the ball:
The Badgers come into this game boasting one of the best offensive units in the Big Ten. Following their 83 point outburst against Indiana last weekend, the Badgers are now averaging a whopping 40.2 points per game (8th in the country). The Badgers also are racking up nearly 430 yards per game.
For the Badgers, it all starts with the running game. The Badgers boast one of the top offenses in the country while averaging just over 228 yards per game on the ground. The Badgers have a trio of tailbacks who have all been very effective this season in John Clay, James White, and Montee Ball. All three of Wisconsin’s primary backs have gained over 500 yards through the first 10 games of the season. Clay, the Badger’s leading rusher with 929 yards on the year, will more than likely sit this game out due to the lingering effects of a sprained knee that he suffered two weeks ago against Purdue. Clay’s bruising running style would have been an absolutely terrible matchup for a Michigan defense that is very small up front.
However, Wisconsin will not miss Clay too much with the one-two punch of James White and Montee Ball getting the bulk of the carries this weekend. White, a speedy freshman, has been devastating in the open field this season and has the ability to take the ball to the house on any play and this is reflected in his 6.8 yard per carry average. In his first game as the feature back against Indiana last week, White exploded for 144 yards on just 19 carries. Montee Ball, a powerful 235 pound sophomore, will also get a lot of carries this weekend. Ball features a downhill running style that could help Wisconsin grind out time of possession and wear down the Michigan defense.
The extremely efficient Scott Tolzien spearheads the Wisconsin passing game. Tolzien has displayed out of this world accuracy so far in 2010 while completing a remarkable 72.5% of his passes. Tolzien has not put up any 300 yard games this year, but he has been the model of consistency and the Badgers know they will get a solid performance out of him in every game. Lance Kendricks, the senior tight end, has been Tolzien’s primary target this year and leads the Badgers in both receptions and yardage. Tolzien spreads the ball around to a wide receiving corps that features Nick Toon.
The Badger offense is built to give the Michigan defense all sorts of problems. The Wisconsin offense is remarkably similar to the offense that Iowa brought to the Big House earlier this season. However, I would say the Badgers are a little more explosive in the running game and a little less explosive in the passing game than the Hawkeyes. Michigan is going to have to put together their best defensive effort of the season to have any shot at even slowing the Badgers.
On the defensive line, Michigan is going to have to have a healthy Mike Martin this weekend to have any shot at holding up against the Badger run game. I am very interested to see how Craig Roh holds up does at the point of attack this weekend as an undersized defensive end against the physical Wisconsin line. Michigan will also need a healthy Jonas Mouton to help fill the proper gaps in the run game. Kenny Demens will need to play a more disciplined game this weekend than he did this past weekend against Purdue. One big concern that I have going into this weekend are the counter type plays that have killed Michigan all year. A back like White will take it to the house if the Michigan linebackers don’t display better discipline against the counter. Michigan, in all likelihood, won’t be able to slow the Badger running game as Wisconsin proved against Ohio State that they can run the ball down anyone’s throat at will.
Tolzien’s accuracy is a nightmare for the young Michigan secondary. Rogers and Avery have played better recently but they have not faced good quarterback play the past two weeks. However, the corners are the least of my concerns this weekend since I don’t really fear any of the Wisconsin wide receivers. I think the corners will do an adequate job keeping Toon and company from breaking off big plays. My biggest concern in the passing game this weekend is that the safeties keep track of the tight ends. Kendricks, along with freshman Jacob Pedersen, will present a very big challenge to a Michigan defense that has struggled to defend the tight end over the middle of the field. Demens and Mouton are going to have to track the tight ends on the short routes and Vinopal and Kovacs must always be cognizant of where each of these guys are on every pass play. I’m hopefull that Vinopal is settling into his role a bit and will be able to use his speed to prevent Kendricks from getting over top of the secondary.
Upshot
Michigan will not stop Wisconsin this weekend. There is simply no way to sugarcoat that this is a horrid matchup for the Michigan defense. I’ve been extremely worried about this matchup since before the season started and I have seen nothing so far in 2010 to change my opinion on it. Michigan will need their young guys to avoid too many mental mistakes, as they will need to make the Badgers work for all of their points. All this being said, I would consider it a “good” day if the defense were able to hold the Badgers under 30.
No comments:
Post a Comment