Job Security

Unfortunately, the one question that just won’t die during this Michigan season is how many wins does Rich Rodriguez need to have at the end of the season in order to keep his job going into 2011.

I am going to stick with my original pre-season predictions, which only consider regular season results.  I do believe that if Rodriguez were to be let go, David Brandon would not wait until after a bowl game (provided Michigan acquires their sixth win) to make a move if he thought one was necessary.  Here’s a refresher on the four scenarios that I originally proposed:

1.     8+ Wins – Eight or more victories and a minimum .500 record in the Big Ten coupled with tons of returning talent and it is a no-brainer that Rich Rod returns to coach a team in 2011 that will be primed to make a run to the first Big Ten Championship game in Indianapolis.

2.     7 Wins including 2 of 3 Rivals – This is the only other scenario that I believe guarantees Rich his job and in order to get the 2 out of 3 rivalry games he will have to get a win in Columbus to feel safe going into bowl prep and the off-season.

3.     7 Wins – This is the one situation that I truly can only speculate on what David Brandon would ultimately decide.  7 wins and a sub .500 Big Ten record would not be the ideal year 3 result, but this situation would almost come down to whether Brandon truly believes the program is on the cusp of achieving greatness with Rodriguez at the helm in 2011.

4.     6 Wins – If Michigan ends the season losing 6 of their last 7, even I, one of the staunchest Rodriguez supporters around, would ultimately concede that it is time to turn the page.  6 wins after the hot start Michigan had would leave them a pathetic 2-6 in the Big Ten and Rich Rod looking for work.

Which scenario is most likely?

I believe that scenarios 1 and 3 are the most likely and realistic outcomes of the 2010 season with five games to go.  I tend to believe that Scenario 1 is still a distinct possibility with the talent that this team has on offense.  The next three games are an obviously crucial stretch due to the fact that it is more than likely that Michigan will be the favored team in each of the next three games.

Scenario 3 would more than likely be the result of dropping one of the next three and it would leave David Brandon with a very tough decision moving forward.  To all those who want so quickly to show Rich the door, do you really think someone else will come in and turn it around right away considering we’ve spent the last three off-seasons recruiting numerous offensive players who were brought in specifically for their ability to play in the spread?  In the event of Scenario 3, my only hope is that Brandon makes a swift decision either way so that the program can move forward and get back to where it needs to be.

What does everyone else think?  Is scenario 3 good enough for you?